Arrow 2 vs Fateh-110: Cost-Exchange Ratio & Combat Analysis
Compare
2026-03-21
3 min read
Overview
This analysis compares the Arrow 2, a Israel Endo-atmo BMD system costing $3.0M per unit, against the Fateh-110, an Iranian SRBM costing $300K per unit. The cost-exchange ratio of 10.0:1 favors the attacker — meaning it costs the defender 10.0x more to intercept than the missile cost Iran to produce. At Operation Epic Fury burn rates of 1.5/day, the Arrow 2 inventory of 85 units faces depletion in approximately 56 days. Endo-atmospheric interceptor for medium-range ballistic missiles, combat-proven Solid-fueled SRBM family — Fateh-110/313/360 variants with 300-400km range
Side-by-Side Specifications
| Dimension | Arrow 2 | Fateh 110 |
|---|
| Unit Cost |
$3.0M |
$300K |
| Cost-Exchange Ratio |
10.0:1 |
10.0:1 |
| Range |
Endo-atmo BMD |
400 km |
| Inventory |
~85 |
~500 |
| Annual Production |
25/yr |
— |
| Role |
Endo-atmo BMD |
SRBM |
| Manufacturer |
IAI + Boeing |
Iran / IRGC |
| Fuel |
Solid rocket |
— |
Head-to-Head Analysis
Cost-Exchange Economics
The Arrow 2 costs $3.0M per unit while the Fateh-110 costs just $300K, creating a 10.0:1 cost-exchange ratio. Unfavorable for the defender. The attacker has significant cost advantage. Iran can produce 10 Fateh-110 units for the price of a single Arrow 2 interceptor.
The Fateh-110 has a 10.0:1 cost advantage over the Arrow 2. This asymmetry is a key factor in the conflict's economic sustainability.
Inventory & Depletion
Coalition forces have approximately 85 Arrow 2 interceptors with annual production of 25 units. Iran maintains an estimated 500 Fateh-110 units. At Operation Epic Fury burn rates of 1.5/day, the Arrow 2 inventory of 85 units faces depletion in approximately 56 days.
Iran holds a 6:1 inventory advantage in this matchup.
Tactical Engagement
The Arrow 2 engages the Fateh-110 during the flight phase. At 400km range, the Fateh-110 is primarily a short-range threat. Combat-proven vs MRBMs.
The Arrow 2 is designed to counter threats like the Fateh-110, but sustained engagement at 10.0:1 cost ratios creates long-term sustainability challenges.
Scenario Analysis
Mass salvo of Fateh-110 missiles
In a saturation attack using Fateh-110 systems, the Arrow 2 battery would need to engage multiple targets simultaneously. At $3.0M per interceptor, a salvo of 5 Fateh-110 missiles would cost $1.5M to launch but $15.0M to intercept.
Fateh-110
Extended conflict (30+ days)
Over 30 days of sustained combat, the Arrow 2 inventory faces significant depletion pressure. Annual production of 25 units translates to just 0.1 per day — far below consumption rates during active operations. Meanwhile, Iran produces approximately 3.3 ballistic missiles and 6.7 drones per day.
Attacker (Iran) — production outpaces defender replenishment
Complementary Use
The Arrow 2 should be integrated into a layered defense architecture, not relied upon as a standalone solution against Fateh-110 threats. Cost-effective lower-tier systems (Iron Dome at $80K, or Iron Beam laser at $2/shot) should handle cheaper threats when possible, preserving expensive Arrow 2 interceptors for high-value targets.
Overall Verdict
The Arrow 2 vs Fateh-110 matchup produces a 10.0:1 cost-exchange ratio favoring the attacker. For sustained conflict planning, interceptor production ramp-up and cost-reduction programs are critical to maintaining defensive capability.
Frequently Asked Questions
Related News & Analysis