Arrow 2 vs Fattah-2: Cost-Exchange Ratio & Combat Analysis
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2026-03-21
3 min read
Overview
This analysis compares the Arrow 2, a Israel Endo-atmo BMD system costing $3.0M per unit, against the Fattah-2, an Iranian Hypersonic RV costing $3.5M per unit. The cost-exchange ratio of 0.9:1 favors the defender — meaning interception is cheaper than the attacking munition. At Operation Epic Fury burn rates of 1.5/day, the Arrow 2 inventory of 85 units faces depletion in approximately 56 days. Endo-atmospheric interceptor for medium-range ballistic missiles, combat-proven Hypersonic glide vehicle warhead on solid-fuel booster, claimed Mach 13+
Side-by-Side Specifications
| Dimension | Arrow 2 | Fattah 2 |
|---|
| Unit Cost |
$3.0M |
$3.5M |
| Cost-Exchange Ratio |
0.9:1 |
0.9:1 |
| Range |
Endo-atmo BMD |
1400 km |
| Inventory |
~85 |
~30 |
| Annual Production |
25/yr |
— |
| Role |
Endo-atmo BMD |
Hypersonic RV |
| Manufacturer |
IAI + Boeing |
Iran / IRGC |
| Fuel |
Solid rocket |
— |
Head-to-Head Analysis
Cost-Exchange Economics
The Arrow 2 costs $3.0M per unit while the Fattah-2 costs just $3.5M, creating a 0.9:1 cost-exchange ratio. Favorable for the defender — one of the few matchups where interception is cheaper than the threat.
The Arrow 2 is one of the rare cases where the defender has a cost advantage, with interception cheaper than the threat.
Inventory & Depletion
Coalition forces have approximately 85 Arrow 2 interceptors with annual production of 25 units. Iran maintains an estimated 30 Fattah-2 units. At Operation Epic Fury burn rates of 1.5/day, the Arrow 2 inventory of 85 units faces depletion in approximately 56 days.
Coalition holds an inventory advantage, but at 0.9:1 cost ratio, this is offset by economics.
Tactical Engagement
The Arrow 2 engages the Fattah-2 during the flight phase. With 1400km range, the Fattah-2 can be launched from deep within Iranian territory, complicating launch detection. Combat-proven vs MRBMs.
The Arrow 2 is designed to counter threats like the Fattah-2, but sustained engagement at 0.9:1 cost ratios creates long-term sustainability challenges.
Scenario Analysis
Mass salvo of Fattah-2 missiles
In a saturation attack using Fattah-2 systems, the Arrow 2 battery would need to engage multiple targets simultaneously. At $3.0M per interceptor, a salvo of 1 Fattah-2 missiles would cost $3.5M to launch but $3.0M to intercept.
Fattah-2
Extended conflict (30+ days)
Over 30 days of sustained combat, the Arrow 2 inventory faces significant depletion pressure. Annual production of 25 units translates to just 0.1 per day — far below consumption rates during active operations. Meanwhile, Iran produces approximately 3.3 ballistic missiles and 6.7 drones per day.
Attacker (Iran) — production outpaces defender replenishment
Complementary Use
The Arrow 2 should be integrated into a layered defense architecture, not relied upon as a standalone solution against Fattah-2 threats. Cost-effective lower-tier systems (Iron Dome at $80K, or Iron Beam laser at $2/shot) should handle cheaper threats when possible, preserving expensive Arrow 2 interceptors for high-value targets.
Overall Verdict
The Arrow 2 vs Fattah-2 matchup produces a 0.9:1 cost-exchange ratio favoring the defender. For sustained conflict planning, interceptor production ramp-up and cost-reduction programs are critical to maintaining defensive capability.
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