Arrow 3 vs Fateh-110: Cost-Exchange Ratio & Combat Analysis
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2026-03-21
3 min read
Overview
This analysis compares the Arrow 3, a Israel Exo-atmo BMD system costing $3.0M per unit, against the Fateh-110, an Iranian SRBM costing $300K per unit. The cost-exchange ratio of 10.0:1 favors the attacker — meaning it costs the defender 10.0x more to intercept than the missile cost Iran to produce. At Operation Epic Fury burn rates of 4/day, the Arrow 3 inventory of 65 units faces depletion in approximately 16 days. Exo-atmospheric interceptor — Israel's upper-tier BMD against long-range ballistic missiles Solid-fueled SRBM family — Fateh-110/313/360 variants with 300-400km range
Side-by-Side Specifications
| Dimension | Arrow 3 | Fateh 110 |
|---|
| Unit Cost |
$3.0M |
$300K |
| Cost-Exchange Ratio |
10.0:1 |
10.0:1 |
| Range |
Exo-atmo BMD |
400 km |
| Inventory |
~65 |
~500 |
| Annual Production |
30/yr |
— |
| Role |
Exo-atmo BMD |
SRBM |
| Manufacturer |
IAI + Boeing |
Iran / IRGC |
| Fuel |
Solid rocket |
— |
Head-to-Head Analysis
Cost-Exchange Economics
The Arrow 3 costs $3.0M per unit while the Fateh-110 costs just $300K, creating a 10.0:1 cost-exchange ratio. Unfavorable for the defender. The attacker has significant cost advantage. Iran can produce 10 Fateh-110 units for the price of a single Arrow 3 interceptor.
The Fateh-110 has a 10.0:1 cost advantage over the Arrow 3. This asymmetry is a key factor in the conflict's economic sustainability.
Inventory & Depletion
Coalition forces have approximately 65 Arrow 3 interceptors with annual production of 30 units. Iran maintains an estimated 500 Fateh-110 units. At Operation Epic Fury burn rates of 4/day, the Arrow 3 inventory of 65 units faces depletion in approximately 16 days.
Iran holds a 8:1 inventory advantage in this matchup.
Tactical Engagement
The Arrow 3 engages the Fateh-110 during the midcourse phase. At 400km range, the Fateh-110 is primarily a short-range threat. "Running low" WSJ Jun '25. Tripled prod. $6.5B Germany deal.
The Arrow 3 is designed to counter threats like the Fateh-110, but sustained engagement at 10.0:1 cost ratios creates long-term sustainability challenges.
Scenario Analysis
Mass salvo of Fateh-110 missiles
In a saturation attack using Fateh-110 systems, the Arrow 3 battery would need to engage multiple targets simultaneously. At $3.0M per interceptor, a salvo of 5 Fateh-110 missiles would cost $1.5M to launch but $15.0M to intercept.
Fateh-110
Extended conflict (30+ days)
Over 30 days of sustained combat, the Arrow 3 inventory faces significant depletion pressure. Annual production of 30 units translates to just 0.1 per day — far below consumption rates during active operations. Meanwhile, Iran produces approximately 3.3 ballistic missiles and 6.7 drones per day.
Attacker (Iran) — production outpaces defender replenishment
Complementary Use
The Arrow 3 should be integrated into a layered defense architecture, not relied upon as a standalone solution against Fateh-110 threats. Cost-effective lower-tier systems (Iron Dome at $80K, or Iron Beam laser at $2/shot) should handle cheaper threats when possible, preserving expensive Arrow 3 interceptors for high-value targets.
Overall Verdict
The Arrow 3 vs Fateh-110 matchup produces a 10.0:1 cost-exchange ratio favoring the attacker. For sustained conflict planning, interceptor production ramp-up and cost-reduction programs are critical to maintaining defensive capability.
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