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Countries 2026-03-21 9 min read

Islamic Republic of Pakistan

non-aligned defensive Defense Budget: $10.3 billion (FY2025–26)
Role in Conflict

Pakistan maintains a carefully calibrated neutrality in the Iran–Israel conflict, balancing its historically close ties to Saudi Arabia and Gulf states with a shared border and cultural connections with Iran. Islamabad has avoided direct involvement but faces pressure from both blocs, particularly given its nuclear status and the world's sixth-largest standing military. Pakistan conducted retaliatory strikes inside Iranian Balochistan in January 2024 after Iran struck Jaish al-Adl targets in Pakistani territory, demonstrating its willingness to defend sovereignty.

Ballistic Missiles

NameTypeRangeStatus
Shaheen-III Medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) 2750 km Operational since 2015, solid-fuelled, road-mobile
Shaheen-II (Hatf-VI) Medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) 1500 km Operational, nuclear-capable, solid-fuelled
Shaheen-1A (Hatf-IV) Short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) 900 km Operational, improved guidance over Shaheen-1
Ababeel MRBM with MIRV capability 2200 km Tested January 2017, development ongoing, designed to penetrate BMD
Ghaznavi (Hatf-III) Short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) 290 km Operational, solid-fuelled, nuclear-capable
Nasr (Hatf-IX) Tactical nuclear-capable SRBM 70 km Operational, battlefield nuclear deterrent, quad-launcher
Ghauri (Hatf-V) Medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) 1300 km Operational, liquid-fuelled, nuclear-capable, being phased for Shaheen series

Cruise Missiles

NameTypeRangeStatus
Babur-3 (SLCM) Submarine-launched cruise missile 450 km Tested from underwater platform 2017, completing second-strike triad
Babur-1A (Hatf-VII) Ground-launched cruise missile 700 km Operational, terrain-hugging, nuclear-capable, road-mobile TEL
Babur-2 Enhanced ground-launched cruise missile 700 km Operational, improved guidance and stealth profile over Babur-1
Ra'ad-II (Hatf-VIII) Air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) 600 km Operational, nuclear-capable, launched from Mirage III/V and JF-17

Drones & UAVs

NameTypeRoleStatus
Burraq Armed UCAV Strike and ISR, fires Barq laser-guided missile Operational, combat-proven in FATA counterterrorism operations
Shahpar-II MALE UAV Tactical ISR and surveillance, 12-hour endurance Operational with Pakistan Army and Air Force
NESCOM Uqaab Tactical UAV Artillery targeting, real-time battlefield surveillance Operational, deployed along LoC and western border
CASC CH-4 MALE UCAV (Chinese origin) Armed reconnaissance and precision strike Reportedly acquired, enhances beyond-visual-range strike capacity

Air Defense Systems

SystemTypeRangeOriginQuantity
HQ-9/P (FD-2000) Long-range SAM 125 km China Estimated 6–9 batteries
LY-80 (HQ-16 export) Medium-range SAM 40 km China Estimated 8+ batteries
Spada 2000 Short/medium-range SAM 25 km Italy Estimated 6 batteries
FM-90 (Crotale derivative) Short-range point defence SAM 15 km China Multiple batteries
RBS-70 / Anza series MANPADS / VSHORAD 6 km Sweden / Pakistan domestic Thousands deployed across all commands

Air Defense Assessment

Pakistan's integrated air defence network is centred on Chinese-supplied systems, with the HQ-9/P providing strategic coverage over key cities and nuclear installations. The layered architecture covers short-to-long range but lacks the density and sensor fusion of NATO-standard IADS. Pakistan has prioritised protecting its nuclear deterrent infrastructure over comprehensive territorial coverage, leaving gaps in peripheral border regions.

Strike Aircraft

AircraftTypeQuantityRole
JF-17 Thunder Block III Multirole fighter 138+ (all blocks combined) Air superiority, precision strike, anti-ship with CM-400AKG
F-16C/D Block 52+ Multirole fighter ~75 (mix of A/B and C/D) Precision strike, nuclear delivery platform, BVR air combat
Mirage III/V ROSE Strike / nuclear delivery ~80 (declining) Nuclear strike (Ra'ad ALCM carrier), ground attack
J-10CE 4.5-gen multirole fighter 25 (initial batch, more ordered) Air superiority, PL-15 BVR capability, replacing Mirage fleet
ZDK-03 Karakoram Eagle AEW&C 4 Airborne early warning, battle management

Naval Assets

Pakistan Navy operates 9 submarines including 3 Agosta-90B class (one with AIP propulsion), capable of launching Babur-3 SLCMs for second-strike capability. The surface fleet includes 4 Type 054A/P frigates acquired from China with HQ-16 SAMs and anti-ship cruise missiles, plus 4 older F-22P Zulfiquar-class frigates. Pakistan's anti-ship capability relies heavily on the C-802/CM-302 family and the indigenous Harbah naval cruise missile, providing meaningful anti-access capability in the northern Arabian Sea.

Key Facilities

Kahuta Research Laboratories (KRL)

Nuclear enrichment / missile R&D — Kahuta, Punjab

Primary uranium enrichment facility using gas centrifuges, birthplace of Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme and Ghauri missile series under A.Q. Khan.

Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) Wah

Weapons manufacturing complex — Wah Cantt, Punjab

Largest defence production complex in Pakistan — manufactures conventional munitions, small arms, explosives, and missile components across 14 factories.

National Defence Complex (NDC)

Missile production / solid-fuel plant — Fateh Jang, Punjab

Produces Shaheen-series solid-fuelled ballistic missiles and Babur cruise missiles. Houses large solid-propellant mixing and casting facilities.

Khushab Nuclear Complex

Plutonium production reactors — Khushab, Punjab

Four heavy-water reactors producing weapons-grade plutonium for miniaturised warheads. Satellite imagery confirms continuous expansion through 2025.

Kamra Aviation Complex (PAC)

Aircraft manufacturing / overhaul — Kamra, Punjab

Produces JF-17 Thunder fighters jointly with Chengdu, overhauls F-16s and Mirages. Critical for sustaining PAF combat fleet readiness.

Masroor Air Base (PAF Base Masroor)

Major air base / maritime patrol — Karachi, Sindh

Pakistan's largest air base by area, hosts maritime strike aircraft and provides air coverage over the Arabian Sea approaches and Karachi port.

Intelligence Agencies

Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)

Primary external intelligence agency; manages covert operations, counter-intelligence, and liaison with foreign services. Historically significant influence in Afghanistan and regional proxy networks.

Military Intelligence (MI)

Army-focused intelligence directorate handling tactical military intelligence, internal security assessments, and counter-insurgency operations along the western border.

Intelligence Bureau (IB)

Domestic civilian intelligence agency responsible for internal security monitoring, counter-terrorism intelligence, and political intelligence under the Prime Minister's office.

Proxy Network

Pakistan does not operate proxy militias in the Iran–Israel conflict theatre. Historically, ISI maintained relationships with non-state groups in Afghanistan (Taliban) and Kashmir (Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed), though Islamabad has officially disavowed support since the 2019 Pulwama crisis. Pakistani Shia volunteers have joined Iranian-linked groups in Syria in small numbers, but without state sponsorship. Pakistan's border with Iran remains a flashpoint for Baloch separatist groups (Jaish al-Adl), which both states target independently.

Nuclear Status

Status: NUCLEAR_POWER

Pakistan possesses an estimated 170 nuclear warheads as of 2025 (SIPRI/FAS estimates), making it the world's fifth-largest nuclear arsenal. The programme spans highly-enriched uranium weapons from Kahuta and plutonium devices from Khushab, with ongoing miniaturisation for tactical delivery via Nasr SRBMs. Pakistan maintains a credible triad across land-based missiles (Shaheen series), air-delivered weapons (F-16, Mirage + Ra'ad ALCM), and sea-based platforms (Babur-3 SLCM from Agosta submarines).

Combat Record

In January 2024, Pakistan conducted 'Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar' — retaliatory precision strikes using armed drones, rockets, and standoff weapons against Baloch separatist targets inside Iran's Sistan-Baluchestan province, responding to Iranian strikes on Pakistani soil days earlier. This was the first cross-border military exchange between the two nations in decades and demonstrated Pakistan's willingness to project force across the Iranian border. Pakistan has not directly engaged in the broader Iran–Israel conflict but has provided diplomatic support to neither bloc, maintaining its non-aligned posture. Its military remains focused on the Indian border (eastern front) and counter-terrorism operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

2024-01-18
Pakistani retaliatory strikes inside Iran (Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar) targeting Baloch militant hideouts
Weapons: Armed drones, rockets, standoff munitions
9 reported killed including militants; diplomatic crisis with Iran resolved within weeks through back-channel negotiations
2024-01-16
Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at alleged Jaish al-Adl targets in Panjgur, Balochistan, Pakistan
Weapons: Iranian ballistic missiles and Shahed-series drones
2 Pakistani children killed; Pakistan recalled ambassador, condemned violation of sovereignty
2019-02-27
Pakistan-India aerial engagement after Balakot crisis — PAF shot down Indian MiG-21 over Kashmir
Weapons: JF-17 and F-16 fighters, AIM-120C AMRAAM (reported)
Indian pilot captured and released; demonstrated PAF combat readiness and BVR capability
2025-12-24
Pakistan test-fires enhanced Shaheen-III MRBM amid regional tensions
Weapons: Shaheen-III ballistic missile
Successful test to 2,750 km range; strategic messaging amid Middle East escalation and Indian nuclear modernisation

Strategic Assessment

Threat Level: LOW

Credible nuclear triad with ~170 warheads across land, air, and submarine-launched platforms
Domestically produced missile arsenal (Shaheen, Babur, Nasr) reducing supply-chain dependency
Sixth-largest military globally with 654,000 active personnel and extensive combat experience
Deep strategic partnership with China providing advanced fighters (J-10CE), frigates (054A/P), and air defence (HQ-9/P)
Combat-proven counterinsurgency capability and demonstrated cross-border precision strike capacity
MIRV-capable Ababeel programme designed to defeat Indian ballistic missile defence
Economy constrains defence modernisation — $10.3B budget inadequate for simultaneous eastern and western front readiness
No 5th-generation fighter programme; reliance on 4th-gen fleet against potential peer adversaries
Limited blue-water naval capability — submarine fleet aging, 8 Chinese S20 submarines still under delivery
US arms embargo risk — F-16 fleet dependent on American spare parts and upgrade cycles
Air defence network lacks NATO-grade sensor fusion and has coverage gaps over Balochistan border regions
Domestic political instability periodically undermines defence policy continuity and procurement timelines

Outlook

Pakistan is unlikely to become directly involved in the Iran–Israel conflict, maintaining strategic ambiguity to preserve ties with both Gulf Arab allies and Iran. Its primary military focus remains India-centric deterrence. However, the January 2024 cross-border exchange with Iran demonstrated that border tensions could escalate rapidly. Pakistan's ongoing military modernisation — particularly the J-10CE acquisition, Chinese submarine programme, and Ababeel MIRV development — is oriented toward strategic parity with India rather than Middle Eastern power projection.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many nuclear weapons does Pakistan have?

Pakistan possesses approximately 170 nuclear warheads as of 2025, according to SIPRI and FAS estimates. The arsenal includes both uranium-based and plutonium-based designs, deliverable via the Shaheen ballistic missile series, Ra'ad air-launched cruise missiles, and Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missiles, forming a functional nuclear triad.

Is Pakistan involved in the Iran–Israel conflict?

Pakistan has maintained official neutrality in the Iran–Israel conflict and has not provided direct military support to either side. However, Islamabad conducted retaliatory strikes inside Iran in January 2024 after Iranian missiles hit Pakistani territory, demonstrating that bilateral tensions can escalate independently of the broader regional conflict.

What is Pakistan's most advanced missile?

The Ababeel MRBM, first tested in January 2017, is Pakistan's most technologically advanced missile with MIRV (Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicle) capability and a range of 2,200 km. The Shaheen-III, with a range of 2,750 km, is the longest-range operational missile in Pakistan's arsenal.

Does Pakistan have a missile defence system?

Pakistan relies on Chinese-supplied air defence systems including the HQ-9/P (FD-2000) with a 125 km engagement range and the LY-80 medium-range SAM. Pakistan does not possess a dedicated ballistic missile defence system comparable to Israel's Arrow or the US THAAD, instead relying on nuclear deterrence as its primary strategic shield.

What fighter jets does the Pakistan Air Force operate?

The PAF operates approximately 75 F-16C/D Block 52+ fighters, 138+ JF-17 Thunder multirole jets (co-produced with China), and 25 newly-acquired J-10CE 4.5-generation fighters. The aging Mirage III/V fleet is being retired as JF-17 Block III and additional J-10CE deliveries continue through 2027.

Sources

Pakistani Nuclear Forces, 2025 Federation of American Scientists (FAS) / Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Nuclear Forces Notebook annual assessment
The Military Balance 2025 International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Annual global military capabilities reference
SIPRI Yearbook 2025: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Annual arms transfers and nuclear arsenals assessment
Pakistan's Ballistic Missile Program: A Factsheet Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Missile Threat Project Missile programme technical reference

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