Explore multi-year conflict scenarios from diplomatic resolution to full regional escalation, with probability modeling and key trigger analysis.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What conflict scenarios are modeled?
The dashboard models scenarios from diplomatic resolution and ceasefire to sustained attrition, regional escalation involving Gulf states, and full-scale conventional war. Each includes probability estimates and trigger conditions.
How are escalation probabilities calculated?
Probabilities are derived from historical conflict analysis, current force postures, diplomatic signals, and expert assessments. They represent informed estimates, not predictions.
What factors could trigger further escalation?
Key triggers include nuclear breakout, leadership decapitation, attacks on civilian infrastructure, third-party involvement, miscalculation during naval confrontations, and collapse of diplomatic channels.